4 facets of daily life where Americans will experience the impact of rising bond yields

Bond yields are climbing to levels unseen in over a year, fueled by worries that President-elect Donald Trump's extensive tariff strategy might trigger a resurgence in inflation.

 

This, in combination with solid economic indicators that don't seem likely to require further aggressive interest rate reductions, has yields on a steep upward trajectory that could impact everyday Americans.

 

While some on Wall Street have issued warnings about how rising bond yields could affect stock markets, the potential challenges extend far beyond that.

 

Outlined below are four areas consumers should monitor for signs of difficulty following the 10-year US Treasury yield's increase of over 100 basis points since mid-September, as it nears the significant 5% mark.

 

Consumer retirement portfolios are confronting a dual challenge as interest rates escalate, resembling what occurred during the bear equity market of 2022.

 

Higher interest rates coincide with declining bond prices for those with fixed-income investments, often resulting in negative returns.

 

In 2022, when the 10-year US Treasury yield more than doubled to around 4%, the Bloomberg aggregate bond index dropped 13%. Increased bond yields also exert pressure on stock valuations, with the S&P 500 falling nearly 20%.

 

Since the 10-year US Treasury yield began increasing in September, that Bloomberg index has decreased nearly 6%, once more adversely affecting consumer retirement assets. This is especially significant for those nearing retirement or already retired, as they typically maintain a larger portion in fixed-income instruments.

 

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 has fallen about 4% since mid-December, when investor unease about surging bond yields started to emerge.

 

Perhaps the most noticeable effect of rising bond yields is the increase in mortgage rates.

 

They were anticipated to decline after the Federal Reserve began reducing interest rates in September, but they have instead increased sharply.

 

This has raised the borrowing costs for potential homebuyers and reduced overall affordability.

 

Based on Freddie Mac data, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has climbed nearly 1 percentage point to approximately 7% since September.

 

"Mortgage rates have risen quite significantly," Greg McBride, the chief financial analyst at Bankrate, told Business Insider. He mentioned that a large proportion of the pain arising from higher bond yields is concentrated in fixed mortgage rates.

 

For consumers aiming to purchase a home at the US median sales price of around $420,000, the nearly 1-percentage-point increase in a 30-year fixed mortgage translates to a rise of more than $200 in monthly mortgage payments, equating to about $2,500 per year.

 

Rising interest rates also have an immediate impact on homeowners with adjustable-rate mortgages, as their monthly payments reset to align with the higher interest rates.

 

Even renters might not be exempt, as landlords facing increased financing costs might transfer those costs to their tenants during the next lease agreement.

 

McBride pointed out that auto loan interest rates are more closely associated with movements in the five-year US Treasury yield, which has roughly mirrored the 10-year note's increase of 100 basis points since September.

 

According to data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve, since interest rates began to rise in 2022, consumer auto loan rates for a five-year loan have almost doubled to 8.4% as of August.

 

Consumers can lower their monthly auto loan payment by opting for a longer repayment period, such as the increasingly popular six-year loan. However, this does not reduce the total amount of interest paid on the car over the loan's duration; it actually increases it.

 

Higher bond yields can also push up interest rates on consumer debt, such as personal loans and credit card balances.

 

For credit cards, since the debt is unsecured, it is variable and closely linked to changes in the prime rate, which is based on the federal funds rate.

 

"Even though the Fed lowered interest rates several times in 2024, average credit card interest rates reached record highs," Sara Rathner, a credit card expert at NerdWallet, told BI. "In simple terms, this makes it more costly to have credit card debt."

 

The average credit card interest rate has jumped from about 15% at the start of 2022 to almost 22%, according to information from the St. Louis Federal Reserve.

 

This 7-percentage-point increase will significantly raise interest expenses for consumers if they carry a credit card balance from month to month and do not pay it off fully.

 

A recent survey by NerdWallet found that US households with revolving credit card balances were carrying an average of nearly $10,000 in debt.

 

"If you only make the minimum payment, it could take you over two decades to pay that off," Rathner said, "and with interest, you'll pay triple the original amount that you charged."